2008 NCAA Basketball Tournament: Betting on UCLA

Today is Feb. 27, 2008. March Madness begins in less than a month, and the regular season schedule is winding down to its final days before the heated conference tournaments begin. (No, you're not included Cornell.)

Parity in men's college basketball has increased exponentially in recent seasons. Some reasons for this? More and more kids seem to grow up playing basketball than ever before. Youth and travel leagues are increasing, and college recruiters seem to have increased and have more "connections" in different parts of the nation than ever before. If you are a star in your area, chances are a recruiter has heard of you and will bombard you with phone calls (or drunk texts at 4 a.m. if you're Kelvin Sampson).

Kids also seem to be growing bigger and stronger earlier in life. There absolutely may not be scientific or genetic proof behind that statement, but when I see 17-year-old boys looking like they should be on "The World's Strongest Man," I feel as if something has changed. Most importantly, the NBA has demanded that the young baller spend at least one year at a college or university before deciding whether they want to enter the NBA draft.

You combine the improved play of the game by children domestically and abroad, as well as improvements in coaching across the American basketball landscape, and the raucous environment that a university's home fans pass on to their beloved team during their home contests, and you have a recipe for parity across the college basketball landscape.

Simply put, it's becoming more acceptable for coaches to spew out basketball cliches, and truly believe what they're saying: "anyone can beat anyone on any given night," "they put their shoes on the same way that we do," "this might be the biggest game of your life." Hey, with the way this season has gone, who knows?

I can't tell you the number of teams who have fallen from their top 10 standing on a nightly basis. The number of "upsets" of top ten teams this season by teams either lower-ranked or unranked is astounding, and the number has to be some sort of record.

The Associated Press and ESPN top-25 rankings have become like a game of musical chairs being played on a scratched compact disc.

The only constant this season has been the No. 1 ranking, and that's been relinquished in recent days by Memphis and the Tennessee Vols, after UT earned the title for an impressive 29 hours after losing to Vandy on the road.

Where am I going with this? Picking a perfect bracket this year is going to be even more difficult than doing so in recent years. March Madness is something I looked forward to each season. In my pre-college years, my team was the Kentucky Wildcats, and I regularly chose them to get to the final four.

After deciding to go to a school in Tulane with no real positive tradition in basketball (aside from its point-shaving scandal in the late '80s that had the program suspended for two seasons), I was left with no real team to bet the house on.

Until this year.

The UCLA Bruins set the standard for college basketball under coaching legend John Wooden. Yet, it appears former-Pitt head coach Ben Howland has brought some wizardry of his own to Westwood in returning pride to UCLA basketball. This is the same program that won 88 consecutive games under Wooden and had a winning record for 54 consecutive seasons until 2002 and 11 National Championships. This year's Bruins team looks to me as if they can get the school No. 12, after coming oh-so-close in 2006 and 2007.

This year's team has flown under the radar once again. Playing their games on the West Coast and getting slightly less TV and press coverage than the Big East and Big Ten teams, UCLA probably doesn't mind. Their records have essentially mirrored those of North Carolina and Memphis - the two teams who have dominated the No. 1 spot this season- yet the Bruins only have owned the ranking for one week, and that was in the ESPN poll, not in the AP.

The Bruins currently sport a record of 24-3, good for No. 4 in the nation in both rankings. Yet, the way they have won has been impressive. A team that has been known for its stifling defense under defensive guru Howland, for the past couple for seasons, the Bruins have improved their offense dramatically this season and have often been able to win games in shootouts. The interior offensive numbers put up by freshman sensation Kevin Love have been staggering. The Oregon native leads the team with 17 and 11 per game. Love is complemented inside by Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Lorenzo Mata-Real, two veterans who pride themselves on their tough defense and are rebounding machines. The team also makes it a habit of not sending their opponent to the free-throw line. Sounds like a pretty good recipe for success to me.

To go along with their consistent inside play, the Bruins have some of the best guard play in the nation. As the saying goes, "3-point shooting and defense win championships." Well, the Bruins have both of those. Not every contender does. Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, and Russell Westbrook are all highly-regarded pro prospects, who are athletic freaks and play an unselfish brand of basketball. The point guard Collison, who has been to two Final Fours already, averages 14 points and four assists per contest. Veteran swingman Shipp also averages 14 per game and might be the most athletic player on the squad. Sophomore guard Westbrook averages 13 points and 5 assists per contest. He's also the team's most deadly 3-point shooter, to go along with the floor general Collison, and the freak Shipp who also can both stroke it from beyond the arc.

The Bruins have eight solid players who can rotate into the game at any time and give the team a lift. Depth is another factor that can help a team come tournament time.

Some people might think my pick of UCLA is a safe one. Ask how many of your buddies are picking the Bruins to go all the way. No, ask them what the team is ranked this season. Nine out of 10 probably won't know. Most probably will pick North Carolina, Memphis, Tennessee, Kansas, or Texas to win. And they aren't wrong in doing so. But the Bruins are hungry to get over the hump. They've been in the last two Final Fours, and came up short. They have the experience, the coaching, the offense, the defense, and the depth. And they have four very winnable games to close the regular season in Arizona State, Arizona, Stanford (which will be a fun one), and rival Cal.

For the aforementioned reasons, I have the most consistent program in the history of college basketball taking the title in one of the most chaotic, unpredictable, yet exciting seasons in the history of college basketball. Let's hope this trend of parity continues in future seasons.

But, for now, I'm taking the Bruins to bring No. 12 back to Westwood. This may be their best chance as their star freshman already is looking at condos in D-Wade's South Beach building for next year.

Where's the Love, New Orleans?

The Hornets are awesome. It's plain and simple, really. They play a passionate, exciting brand of basketball loved by analysts and diehard NBA fans alike. They are no longer "under-the-radar." Everyone knows who Chris Paul is, and how quickly he has progressed into a top 5 guard.

So why can't the team sell out its home arena on a nightly basis? Why hasn't "The Other City that Never Sleeps" taken to this team yet?

I think I may have some answers:

1. Population and Socio-economic circumstance

New Orleans is not a large city. Before Hurricane Katrina, the city had a population of slightly more than 600,000 residents. In 2006, one year after the tragedy, the city's population dwarfed to a mere 220,000 residents.

Think about that number for one second. I think Green Bay, Wisconsin might have almost as many residents and it has only one professional sports team—one that has had vast amounts of success in a place with nothing else to do besides watch football.

Try being able to support two professional sports teams in a city that got ravaged by the worst natural disaster in American history and has just lost almost 60 percent of its total population.

Today, New Orleans' population has increased to about 275,000 residents, making it the smallest market in the NBA.

Also, most of the team's potential fanbase comes from outside the city.

Due to the fact that New Orleans has become a small city—one with a lower median household income than before the storm—attending NBA games on a regular basis is not easy for fans.
It is a fact that the Hornets have the cheapest season tickets in the NBA, yet when you play 41 home games a season, many coming at 7 p.m. on a Wednesday, you're not going to attract large crowds in a market where many people work jobs until at least 6 p.m. They then have to drive an hour to get to the arena and won't end up returning home until 11 p.m. The same is true with families.

You are not going to find a good deal of bachelors who call themselves full-time residents of New Orleans, unless you count broke college students of Tulane, Loyola, or LSU. Many of these people can't afford to bring their kids to the game on a school night or leave them at home until close to 11 p.m.

Essentially New Orleans' population—both the number and type of residents—is a major reason why the Hornets have been struggling so far despite their on-court success. There's only so much love to go around on the sporting landscape. These latter points will be expounded on later.

2. Lack of Tradition in the Region and Uncertainty About the Future

LSU is located in Baton Rouge, 65 miles from the New Orleans Arena. As a result, at least 2/3 of the houses in New Orleans sport purple and gold LSU flags outside their homes. Makes a whole lot of sense, eh?

LSU pride is pervasive around this city due to the success of the university's sports (football and baseball in particular). Also, at least 50 percent of New Orleans high school grads who are able to attend college end up choosing LSU because "it's close, has good sports, and isn't full of the carpetbaggers who attend Tulane."

The sports scene in the South has always been about football so it should come as no surprise that LSU football and the New Orleans Saints are the hot sells in this city. Heck, even the city's Arena League team the "Voodoo" sells out the same venue more often than the Hornets.
The Saints also decided to return to New Orleans months after Katrina. The Hornets did not. The Hornets were the newer team in New Orleans, and understanding that the city wouldn't be able to handle two sports teams for the time being, the city chose the Saints to return full-time.
The Hornets were banished to Oklahoma City. While the city welcomed new marquee additions like Drew Brees and Reggie Bush with open arms, the Hornets, who had only spent three previous seasons in New Orleans before Katrina hit, were regarded as afterthoughts.

Yes, the team saw solid crowds before the storm, but unlike the Saints, the Hornets were struggling and hadn't fully established themselves with the population. There was no real tradition there.

The New Orleans Hornets? At least the Saints were known for being the "Aints", had Archie Manning, and had their fans wear bags over their faces at numerous games. The Hornets had none of that.

I believe that no matter how many things the team has done in the community and on the court, it still hasn't fully regained the trust of this football-crazy city. Time will tell if the Hornets will begin to establish their own tradition and it all starts with winning.

Lastly, weekly rumors of the team leaving town don't help the franchise to attract new fans.

3. The City of Entertainment and Tourism: "A One Night Stand?"

New Orleans is full of things to do: Bourbon Street, Pat O'Briens, strip clubs, jazz clubs on Frenchman Street, Riverboat rides on the Mississippi, Beignets at Cafe du Monde, Harrah's Casino on Canal Street, Tipitina's Music Club uptown. God knows I'm forgetting the countless marvelous restaurants and other cauldrons of debauchery that can be explored in this effervescent city.

New Orleans is a tourist's paradise, chock full of crazy activities to partake in. Yes, the insanity has been tempered since the Hurricane, but this city has so many things to do.

Step away for a second, and think about this: New Orleans is known for being a haven for tourists, like Las Vegas, with a relatively small resident population. As a tourist what would you rather do? Go to the strip clubs on Bourbon Street, hit up the jazz clubs on Frenchmen, or go to an NBA basketball game? Ding Ding...If attending an NBA basketball game was the last thing you would choose on that list, congrats! The point is that you aren't alone in your beliefs. The problem for the Hornets is that there are too many tourists who would rather partake in these activities, and not enough full-time residents who are devoted to this team and its players.

Conclusion:
All three of those factors, on top of a cable dispute with Cox Sports TV that has refused to carry Hornets' home games to suburban residents of New Orleans living in the affluent North Shore who would like to see their "new" team play but can't afford to drive 45 minutes across Lake Pontchartrain every night to do so, problems have arisen, resulting in low attendance figures.

The New Orleans Hornets are a mystery to many New Orleanians who can't remember the last time they played a full season in their city because it happened before Hurricane Katrina.
For many, one life ended as a result of the storm and a new one began months after. They have completely forgotten the team that tried to represent New Orleans.

Thanks to recent national attention for the Hornets' superb play in overcoming these odds, and the announcement of the NBA All-Star Game (an event loved by all sports fans regardless of city locale or sporting preference), the Hornets attendance began to increase as the All-Star Break beckoned. Cox Sports (CST) even allows the majority middle and upper-middle class residents of the North Shore to view an increased amount of the games on TV.

As most marketers understand, the only way to reestablish a fanbase that has been all but lost and forgotten is to allow it to see the team from afar first. Then they can decide if they want to make the 23-mile trek across the lake to the Arena to see their new favorite team in person.
Like the city of New Orleans, the Hornets are rebuilding their franchise faster than expected. They went from 18-64 to 36-15 at the All-Star Break. For both the work is far from done, but with the recent surge in attendance for recent games, the future appears bright.
The last home game was against lowly Memphis. The first time these two teams met attendance at the arena was barely more than 9,000. The second time they met in New Orleans happened to be the Saturday before All-Star-Weekend. Attendance?

A sellout.

So my advice to the reader? Pay attention to this team. If you don't live in the area, take note of what the Hornets are doing against the odds.

If you do live here, get your lazy ass to the arena on Girod Street next to that other sporting venue you may have visited once or twice called the Superdome.

Bourbon Street is open 24 hours. The Hornets close at 9:30 p.m.